The biggest risks in the world economy at the moment
Looking at the 2019, what would you consider to be the biggest risks in the world economy at the moment?
The most important factor is the slower growth that we are having on a global scale. All the indicators are currently telling us that we are slowing down quite fast, especially in the industry section. The second half of last year was weaker than expected, but we don’t see us going into recession quite yet.
When we look at Europe and the global field, US and China, there’s so much happening at the moment and the coming years will be bumpy on both sides.
Brexit is one of the risks we obviously cannot look past. It could be a managed crisis, but there’s also the possibility of a disaster if a common solution isn’t found.
Debt crisis a severe risk
However, in my opinion, the current debt crisis in Italy is a more severe risk than Brexit. It will be more costly and a lot of investments have already been lost due to the situation.
With the third largest economy in the EU having a huge public debt and what we can well call a crisis, both economically and politically, we could end up in a very bad situation. We already see the volatility in the financial market and that is worrying big banks and economists around Europe.
It’s important that when we look at Europe and the southern European countries with high debt, including France, we also look at the means how they could manage the situation and proceed with structural changes to solve it. If they don’t succeed, it could mean slow development for all of Europe.
Most European countries still have positive growth. World trade will also slow down but is still at healthy levels. The indicators are showing us that despite struggles, we are at satisfactory levels at the moment. But we need to be able to change the direction going forward or we could have a bad situation at our hands.